Because of the fast paced,
always changing world we live in it is important to understand how to make
decisions for complex problems. We live
in a world economy where many of these decisions may affect multiple
stakeholders. We may also have a
completely different set of needs then a company we are working with. Sometimes changing our business models can
help us make decisions.
A flexible, two-stage
process is one way in which we can make these decisions. In the text it talks about this process, It
states, “In the new approaches, decision making is viewed as a rolling
two-stage process: The first stage focuses on enhancing knowledge of the environment,
response flexibility, and the value of future options. The second stage is concerned with cashing in
on those options that are in the money” (Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther,
2001) . Basically this approach says that we need to
combine methods of gathering data and make it available to us at any given
moment. Because we live in a world where
decisions can have instant consequences we need to be able to have access to
instant and live data. Within my
organization we handle minute to minute flight schedule and cargo changes. Having live access to this data helps us to
make correct and safe decisions regarding how the loading of the aircraft. Because some items are hazardous and cannot
be placed near other items we need to have access to up-to-date information
that tells us what is going to be on an aircraft and when it will be
landing. Changes to the cargo size and
weight can also have a significant impact to the flight capability.
Understanding trends in
our businesses can helps us to be a better organization also. One way in which we do this is through
inspections. We consistently have
inspections on our processes that often affect the way in which we do business.
We have records of past inspections from
the previous weeks, months and years.
This information enables us to identify commonalities in our shortfalls
and weaknesses. By understanding these
we can hopefully find ways to fix these weaknesses. The text states, “Any patterns in this data
can be used to begin the process of focused detective work” (Hoch,
Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001) . We often use data gathered by our different
sections to begin the process of finding out what is going wrong and what the
possible solutions may be. Over time
these changes help us to avoid making the same mistakes over again.
Another method the book
discusses is Doing Something about the Weather.
The book gives a brief explanation of this. It states, “By studying the demands of
different customer segments on one or more of these “similar days” and
adjusting for changing price effects, a very accurate picture emerges” (Hoch,
Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001) . The example in the book refers to using information
from the past five years of weather to predict the future. We can use similar methods in our organizations. We look for similarities in the different
behaviors of airmen in order to find out when mistakes will happen. We even look at weather patterns in order to
know when to secure equipment or prepare for flooding. At the moment I’m stationed in Guam. Every year we tend to get hit with a number
of typhoons. By using information from
previous years we are able to mitigate any damage it might do. We bring has many vehicles inside as we can
and then strap down other items so that they won’t fly away and damage something
or someone. These past experiences help
us to mitigate any problems that may happen in the future. We are also using housing and manning information
to help gain funding for new structures.
As the military is still looking to increase it’s presence in Guam we
are in the process of using this information to request funding for new
structures so we can handle more personnel.
Similarly, we use adjustment factors to help us decide what amount of
funding we may need in case the number of personnel grows from the initial
estimates.
Because of the complex
nature of the world we now live in we have to remember that there are a number of
stakeholder involved in these decisions.
My organization is just one of many on a base. Decisions we make can affect the entire base
and even those in other locations. In
order to be able to serve everyone equally and fairly we have to do our best to
set specific standards. Although it can
be difficult to make sure everyone adheres to these standards, we have to implement
them in order to be as efficient as possible.
We have standards for building pallets of cargo, what cargo can go
together, how the cargo must be tied down and even the height and width of the
cargo depending on the size of the aircraft.
If anything changes, those changes need to be communicated to us. When these changes are made it can affect the
entire mission. Aircraft are given a
certain amount of fuel based on the amount of cargo they are planned to take
on. Changes in that cargo can have catastrophic
effects on the plane and can even cause it to crash.
The combining factor in
all these comes down to communication.
Whether it’s data, schedules, objectives or changes, communication is a
key factor in the success of a company. Due
to the complexity of the missions we deal with it is imperative that all
stakeholders have good communication. In
Guam we deal with power issues. In the last
several years there have been several power plants that have exploded and are
no longer useable. In order to provide
power for the entire island we have implemented energy conservation on the
base. Certain hours of the night we shut
down operations in order to conserve this energy. If anyone is not involved in this decision
process it can cause issues with operations that may have second and third
orders of effect. Being present with the
correct information and being able to share that information is the key to
success. Not sharing this information
with others will cause serious mistakes to happen.
Whether leading your
troops, employees or just communicating with other sections or stakeholders,
being knowledgeable in your updated and accurate information can make or break
a company. Having the ability to gather
the data needed to do the job is vital to be able to do this. We need to understand how we can obtain data
vital to our decision-making process and how to appropriately use it to
forecast the needs of our organization or share it as applicable.
Bibliography
Hoch, S. J., Kunreuther, H. C., & Gunther, R. E.
(2001). Wharton on Making Decisions. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons,
Inc.
No comments:
Post a Comment